I took a blind sabermetric look at two unidentified position players and pitchers for an analytics certification, removing names and team context to focus only on the data. The goal was to evaluate who provided the stronger overall profile through production, consistency, discipline, control, and other advanced metrics- not reputation or otherwise.
Sabermetric along with me! Data is provided.
Pitching Analysis
Why Pitcher A Is Better Than Pitcher B
I believe Pitcher A would be a better choice than Pitcher B because A has the stronger overall pitching profile, especially in the areas that matter most: run prevention, limiting baserunners, and consistency. Pitcher B has a real argument because he threw more innings, made more starts, and struck out more hitters. But I do not think that makes him better. Pitching is not only about volume or strikeouts. It is about preventing runs, controlling innings, and limiting damage. In those areas, Pitcher A has the better case. A glaringly obvious difference between the two pitchers is age.
I prefer more context, including roster construction, payroll, contract value, team needs, and overall organizational fit. Those factors matter in real baseball decisions. However, for this exercise, I understand those variables should be removed, and based only on the pitching data, I still prefer Pitcher A.
Pitcher A is better at overall run prevention.
The biggest reason I prefer Pitcher A is that he prevented runs better than Pitcher B. Across the four-year sample, A had the lower ERA and the stronger ERA+ profile. That’s important; it does help show how each pitcher performed compared to the environment around him.
Pitcher B had one excellent season, but Pitcher A was more consistently above average. A’s ERA+ marks were strong every year, while B had a season that was basically league average. That gives A the better run-prevention argument.
Data:
Pitcher A ERA: 3.01 | Pitcher B ERA: 3.33
Pitcher A ERA+ average: 147.3 | Pitcher B ERA+ average: 127.8
Pitcher A ERA+ by season: 196, 145, 121, 127
Pitcher B ERA+ by season: 114, 171, 101, 125
This is a clear separator. Pitcher B may have had more strikeouts, but A was better at keeping runs off the board.
Pitcher A allowed less traffic and showed better control
Another reason I prefer A is that he did a better job keeping runners off base. Pitcher A had the better WHIP, walked fewer hitters, and kept opponents to a lower OBP. That reveals to me that A was pitching cleaner innings and creating fewer problems.
This is an issue with Pitcher B. His WHIP climbed late in the sample, which means more traffic. More traffic means more stress, more chances for big innings, and less margin for error. Pitcher A’s worst WHIP season was still better than B’s two worst WHIP seasons.
Data:
Pitcher A WHIP: 1.105 | Pitcher B WHIP: 1.186
Pitcher A walks: 160 BB in 705.2 IP | Pitcher B walks: 223 BB in 770 IP
Pitcher A BB/9: 2.04 | Pitcher B BB/9: 2.61
Pitcher A opponent OBP: .286 | Pitcher B opponent OBP: .300
Pitcher B WHIP late in sample: 1.323, 1.310
Pitcher A's worst WHIP season: 1.189
B’s extra strikeouts are less impressive when he is also allowing more runners. A’s control and WHIP show that he was more efficient at avoiding trouble.
Pitcher A was more consistent and gave up less damage
Lastly, I prefer A’s consistency. Pitcher A did not have an ugly season in this sample; his ERA stayed in a strong range every year, and his FIP was steadier than B’s. Pitcher B had a great peak season, but he also had a 4.33 ERA season with a 1.323 WHIP, which is a real blemish.
A also allowed less damage overall. Opponents had a lower batting average, OBP, slugging percentage, and OPS against him. His BABIP was also lower than B’s. BABIP can involve luck and defense, so I would not use that solely, but it fits with the rest of A’s profile.
Data:
Pitcher A ERA by season: 2.13, 3.03, 3.44, 3.46
Pitcher B ERA by season: 3.34, 2.44, 4.33, 3.32
Pitcher A FIP by season: 3.20, 3.88, 3.78, 3.61
Pitcher B FIP by season: 2.92, 3.41, 4.10, 4.39
Pitcher A opponent SLG: .370 | Pitcher B opponent SLG: .387
Pitcher A opponent OPS: .656 | Pitcher B opponent OPS: .687
Pitcher A BABIP average: .279 | Pitcher B BABIP average: .293
Pitcher B’s best season is strong, but A’s overall profile is cleaner. A is younger, has prevented runs at a better rate, allowed fewer baserunners, gives up less damage, and avoided a bad season like B had.
Overall, I think Pitcher B has the louder arm, but Pitcher A has the better pitching case. B wins in volume and strikeouts. A wins in run prevention, WHIP, ERA+, control, opponent damage, BABIP, FIP stability, and consistency. For me, those are the better indicators of who was the more reliable and effective pitcher.
Hitting Analysis
Player A has the better overall offensive profile
Player B can absolutely hit for damage. B has real slugging ability, especially with seasons of .552 SLG and 33 home runs. But B being able to bang does not make him the better overall hitter. Player A has the stronger total offensive profile because he leads in OPS, wRC+, OPS+, DRC+, and overall consistency.
Data:
Player A OPS by season: .742, .913, .899, .928
Player B OPS by season: .820, .906, .798, .834
Player A average OPS: .871 | Player B average OPS: .840
Player A wRC+ by season: 105, 155, 145, 145
Player B wRC+ by season: 121, 139, 114, 115
Player A OPS+ by season: 103, 152, 146, 143
Player B OPS+ by season: 124, 141, 117, 118
B has power, but A is producing a more complete offense. A’s wRC+ is better overall, and wRC+ is one of the better stats here because it measures total offensive value adjusted for league and park context. A was not just collecting empty production. He was creating runs at a higher level.
Player A controls the strike zone better
Another reason I prefer Player A is plate discipline. A walked more, struck out less, and reached base more consistently. That matters because a hitter who controls the strike zone gives a lineup more stability. B had a strong batting average profile, but A’s OBP and strike-zone control give him the better offensive foundation.
Data:
Player A walks: 301 | Player B walks: 155
Player A strikeouts: 456 | Player B strikeouts: 505
Player A K rate: 17.0% | Player B K rate: 19.3%
Player A OBP by season: .323, .386, .387, .385
Player B OBP by season: .353, .354, .325, .330
Player A average OBP: .370 | Player B average OBP: .341
This is a major separator. Player A had more plate appearances than B and still struck out fewer times. That supports the argument that A is the more controlled and reliable hitter. B has impact, but A gives you fewer empty at-bats and is more consistent on-base value.
Player A is the more complete and consistent player
Player A also brings more complete value beyond just slugging. A is younger, more consistent, and more dynamic on the bases. A also led in 42 categories in the comparison, which supports the idea that this is not just one stat carrying the argument.
Data:
Player A ages: 23–26 | Player B ages: 29–32
Player A stolen bases: 31 | Player B stolen bases: 7
Player A fWAR total: 17.2 | Player B fWAR total: 9.2
Player A bWAR total: 20.3 | Player B bWAR total: 12.5
Player A BABIP by season: .258, .311, .289, .309
Player A AVG by season: .233, .286, .278, .292
A’s BABIP being higher than his actual batting average suggests there may be more offensive value in the batted-ball profile than the batting average alone shows. The sheet also identifies A as a left-handed hitter, so I would want more context on defensive positioning and shifting before making a stronger claim there. But even without that added context, A’s underlying profile is very strong.
Take a stab at who you think these players are, and leave a comment. I know who they are, do you?
A. Hendricks: 14.2 fWAR, 100.92 RE24
B. Lester: 13.8 fWAR, 61.82 RE24
C. Scherzer: 26.0 fWAR, 163.35 RE24